Inside the Simulation: How Geopol Forecaster’s Actors Think

Inside the Simulation: How Geopol Forecaster’s Actors Think

A deep dive into the simulation architecture behind Geopol Forecaster — the 40+ actor personas, the sealed-off reasoning model, world state persistence, and the six analytical lenses that critique each other blind.

AI geopolitics simulation +3 more
AI Forecast: Forced Regime Change in Iran at 4-9% Within a Year

AI Forecast: Forced Regime Change in Iran at 4-9% Within a Year

The Geopol Forecaster pipeline assessed the probability of forced regime change in Iran — IRGC removal, non-autocratic replacement, and formal Israel recognition — at less than 1% within a week, 1-3% within a month, and 4-9% within a year.

AI geopolitics Iran +2 more
AI Forecasting the Iran-Israel Ceasefire: A 4% Chance of Holding

AI Forecasting the Iran-Israel Ceasefire: A 4% Chance of Holding

Running the Geopol Forecaster pipeline on the April 2026 Iran-Israel-US ceasefire produced a stark verdict: 55% at 24 hours, 22% at 72 hours, and just 4% at one month.

AI geopolitics Iran +3 more
Geopol Forecaster: An Open-Source AI Geopolitical Prediction Pipeline

Geopol Forecaster: An Open-Source AI Geopolitical Prediction Pipeline

Introducing an open-source two-stage geopolitical forecasting pipeline that combines actor simulation with multi-lens analytical deliberation — built on tools the intelligence community is already experimenting with.

AI geopolitics open source +2 more
Small ideas for Israel's home front, from inside the mamad

Small ideas for Israel's home front, from inside the mamad

Thirteen small, practical ideas for improving Israel's home front alerting and public shelter system — covering the Pikud HaOref app, siren delivery, post-event guidance, mamad logistics, and the data and APIs that the whole ecosystem depends on.

Israel Civil Defence Pikud HaOref +3 more
My Claude Code Projects Index & Plugin Marketplace

My Claude Code Projects Index & Plugin Marketplace

A look at two open source projects I've been building: a curated index of 200+ Claude Code project templates and a plugin marketplace with ready-to-install extensions.

claude-code ai open-source +2 more
Home Assistant Shabbat and Yom Tov Dashboard

Home Assistant Shabbat and Yom Tov Dashboard

A Home Assistant dashboard for Shabbat and Yom Tov observance featuring candle lighting times, Red Alert integration, weather, Hebrew date, and parsha display.

Home Assistant Shabbat smart home +2 more
MakoletTime: Home Assistant Grocery List with NFC

MakoletTime: Home Assistant Grocery List with NFC

A Home Assistant project for creating visual grocery shopping lists using button cards and NFC tags, designed for Israeli household shopping.

Home Assistant smart home Israel +2 more
Israel to World Salary Converter

Israel to World Salary Converter

A Streamlit web app for converting salaries between Israeli Shekels and major world currencies, with real-time exchange rates.

Israel Streamlit Python +2 more
Ivory Parts Finder: Israeli Computer Parts Price Comparison

Ivory Parts Finder: Israeli Computer Parts Price Comparison

A tool for scraping Israeli computer parts retailer Ivory with LLM-powered enrichment for price comparison against US retail prices.

Israel Python price comparison +2 more
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