Inside the Simulation: How Geopol Forecaster’s Actors Think
A deep dive into the simulation architecture behind Geopol Forecaster — the 40+ actor personas, the sealed-off reasoning model, world state persistence, and the six analytical lenses that critique each other blind.
AI Forecast: Forced Regime Change in Iran at 4-9% Within a Year
The Geopol Forecaster pipeline assessed the probability of forced regime change in Iran — IRGC removal, non-autocratic replacement, and formal Israel recognition — at less than 1% within a week, 1-3% within a month, and 4-9% within a year.
AI Forecasting the Iran-Israel Ceasefire: A 4% Chance of Holding
Running the Geopol Forecaster pipeline on the April 2026 Iran-Israel-US ceasefire produced a stark verdict: 55% at 24 hours, 22% at 72 hours, and just 4% at one month.
Geopol Forecaster: An Open-Source AI Geopolitical Prediction Pipeline
Introducing an open-source two-stage geopolitical forecasting pipeline that combines actor simulation with multi-lens analytical deliberation — built on tools the intelligence community is already experimenting with.
Small ideas for Israel's home front, from inside the mamad
Thirteen small, practical ideas for improving Israel's home front alerting and public shelter system — covering the Pikud HaOref app, siren delivery, post-event guidance, mamad logistics, and the data and APIs that the whole ecosystem depends on.
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My Claude Code Projects Index & Plugin Marketplace
A look at two open source projects I've been building: a curated index of 200+ Claude Code project templates and a plugin marketplace with ready-to-install extensions.
Home Assistant Shabbat and Yom Tov Dashboard
A Home Assistant dashboard for Shabbat and Yom Tov observance featuring candle lighting times, Red Alert integration, weather, Hebrew date, and parsha display.
MakoletTime: Home Assistant Grocery List with NFC
A Home Assistant project for creating visual grocery shopping lists using button cards and NFC tags, designed for Israeli household shopping.
Israel to World Salary Converter
A Streamlit web app for converting salaries between Israeli Shekels and major world currencies, with real-time exchange rates.
Ivory Parts Finder: Israeli Computer Parts Price Comparison
A tool for scraping Israeli computer parts retailer Ivory with LLM-powered enrichment for price comparison against US retail prices.