Tag
forecasting
7 posts · all tags
Five Frontier Models Walk Into a Forecasting Council
I stripped the heavy actor-simulation out of my geopolitical forecasting pipeline and ran five lineage-diverse LLMs as a council on Iran-Israel-US. The consensus was interesting. The disagreement was more interesting.
The Loaded Spring: What an AI Geopolitical Simulation Reveals About Iran-Israel Escalation
A geopolitical forecasting simulation reveals why the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire is a loaded spring, with a 70-80% probability of collapse within 7-10 days and structured drift toward limited regional war.
Inside the Simulation: How Geopol Forecaster’s Actors Think
A deep dive into the simulation architecture behind Geopol Forecaster — the 40+ actor personas, the sealed-off reasoning model, world state persistence, and the six analytical lenses that critique each other blind.
AI Forecast: Forced Regime Change in Iran at 4-9% Within a Year
The Geopol Forecaster pipeline assessed the probability of forced regime change in Iran — IRGC removal, non-autocratic replacement, and formal Israel recognition — at less than 1% within a week, 1-3% within a month, and 4-9% within a year.
AI Forecasting the Iran-Israel Ceasefire: A 4% Chance of Holding
Running the Geopol Forecaster pipeline on the April 2026 Iran-Israel-US ceasefire produced a stark verdict: 55% at 24 hours, 22% at 72 hours, and just 4% at one month.
Geopol Forecaster: An Open-Source AI Geopolitical Prediction Pipeline
Introducing an open-source two-stage geopolitical forecasting pipeline that combines actor simulation with multi-lens analytical deliberation — built on tools the intelligence community is already experimenting with.
Geopol Forecaster: A Multi-Agent Geopolitical Forecasting Experiment
An experiment in multi-agent AI forecasting: six independent analytical lenses generate structured geopolitical situation reports and scenario forecasts from live intelligence data.