Tag
Iran
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AI Forecast: Forced Regime Change in Iran at 4-9% Within a Year
The Geopol Forecaster pipeline assessed the probability of forced regime change in Iran — IRGC removal, non-autocratic replacement, and formal Israel recognition — at less than 1% within a week, 1-3% within a month, and 4-9% within a year.
AI geopolitics Iran
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AI Forecasting the Iran-Israel Ceasefire: A 4% Chance of Holding
Running the Geopol Forecaster pipeline on the April 2026 Iran-Israel-US ceasefire produced a stark verdict: 55% at 24 hours, 22% at 72 hours, and just 4% at one month.
AI geopolitics Iran
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Every Iranian Missile Interception Is a Miracle of Human Ingenuity
A personal account of surviving Iran's first ballistic missile attack on Israel — and the physics that makes every interception almost impossibly difficult.
Opinions Israel Iran
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